Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 48.85%. A win for Metz had a probability of 26.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.
Result | ||
Rennes | Draw | Metz |
48.85% ( -0.6) | 25.14% ( 0.28) | 26.01% ( 0.32) |
Both teams to score 52.36% ( -0.6) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.53% ( -0.92) | 50.47% ( 0.93) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.6% ( -0.82) | 72.4% ( 0.83) |
Rennes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.32% ( -0.62) | 20.68% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.72% ( -0.99) | 53.27% ( 1) |
Metz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.01% ( -0.23) | 33.99% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.33% ( -0.25) | 70.67% ( 0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Rennes | Draw | Metz |
1-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.95% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.95% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.61% Total : 48.84% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.13% | 0-1 @ 7.59% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.27% Total : 26.01% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 33 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 79 | 33 | 46 | 73 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 |
3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 |
4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
5 | Nice | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 |
8 | Marseille | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 50 | 40 | 10 | 47 |
9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 |
10 | Reims | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 44 |
11 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 |
R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |