Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Luton Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
29.53% ( 0.81) | 24.18% ( 0.28) | 46.28% ( -1.09) |
Both teams to score 58.14% ( -0.41) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.91% ( -0.78) | 44.09% ( 0.78) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.53% ( -0.77) | 66.47% ( 0.76) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.96% ( 0.16) | 28.03% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.31% ( 0.21) | 63.69% ( -0.21) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.8% ( -0.75) | 19.2% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.11% ( -1.26) | 50.88% ( 1.25) |
Score Analysis |
Luton Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
2-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.51% 3-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.78% Total : 29.53% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 4.03% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 2.12% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.11) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.2% Total : 46.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Manchester CityMan City | 37 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 93 | 33 | 60 | 88 |
2 | Arsenal | 37 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 28 | 61 | 86 |
3 | Liverpool | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 84 | 41 | 43 | 79 |
4 | Aston Villa | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 56 | 20 | 68 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 71 | 61 | 10 | 63 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 79 | 57 | 22 | 57 |
7 | Chelsea | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 73 | 61 | 12 | 57 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 52 | 56 | -4 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 52 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 48 |
11 | Bournemouth | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 48 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 46 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 46 |
14 | Fulham | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 44 |
15 | Everton | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 37 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 50 | 81 | -31 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 40 | 76 | -36 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 37 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 35 | 101 | -66 | 16 |
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