We say: Manchester United 1-1 Newcastle United
Without a draw on their travels since October, Newcastle are an unpredictable and volatile force on the road - winning four and losing three of their last seven - but Howe's men should certainly trouble the permeable Man United backline.
There were some encouraging signs for Ten Hag and co against title-chasing Arsenal, though, and given the Magpies' own absentees at the back, we can envisage the Red Devils holding out for a respectable point as the Old Trafford curtain comes down on 2023-24.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Manchester United win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for Newcastle United has a probability of 31.49% and a draw has a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 (5.75%) and 1-0 (5.65%). The likeliest Newcastle United win is 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.96%).