Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 63.36%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Fulham had a probability of 16.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 1-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a Fulham win it was 1-2 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Aston Villa in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Aston Villa.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
63.36% ( 0.96) | 19.87% ( -0.15) | 16.77% ( -0.82) |
Both teams to score 56.12% ( -1.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.08% ( -0.8) | 38.91% ( 0.8) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.77% ( -0.85) | 61.22% ( 0.84) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.31% ( 0.02) | 11.68% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.22% ( 0.05) | 36.77% ( -0.05) |
Fulham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.55% ( -1.43) | 36.44% ( 1.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.76% ( -1.47) | 73.23% ( 1.46) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.81% ( 0.38) 1-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.28) 4-1 @ 3.81% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.07) Other @ 4.06% Total : 63.36% | 1-1 @ 9.23% 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.18% Total : 19.87% | 1-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 4.3% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.39% Total : 16.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Manchester CityMan City | 37 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 93 | 33 | 60 | 88 |
2 | Arsenal | 37 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 28 | 61 | 86 |
3 | Liverpool | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 84 | 41 | 43 | 79 |
4 | Aston Villa | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 56 | 20 | 68 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 71 | 61 | 10 | 63 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 79 | 57 | 22 | 57 |
7 | Chelsea | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 73 | 61 | 12 | 57 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 52 | 56 | -4 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 52 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 48 |
11 | Bournemouth | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 48 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 46 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 46 |
14 | Fulham | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 44 |
15 | Everton | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 37 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 50 | 81 | -31 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 40 | 76 | -36 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 37 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 35 | 101 | -66 | 16 |
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