Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 54.13%. A win for Braga had a probability of 23.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
54.13% ( 0) | 22.06% ( -0) | 23.8% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 60.28% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.08% ( 0) | 38.92% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.76% ( 0) | 61.23% ( -0.01) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.59% ( 0) | 14.4% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.68% ( 0.01) | 42.31% ( -0.01) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.42% ( -0) | 29.57% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.4% ( -0) | 65.6% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
2-1 @ 9.74% 1-0 @ 8.25% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8% 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.16% 3-2 @ 3.83% 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.5% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.86% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.18% 5-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 3.29% Total : 54.13% | 1-1 @ 10.05% 2-2 @ 5.94% 0-0 @ 4.26% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.05% | 1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.16% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.49% 2-3 @ 2.41% 0-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 3.15% Total : 23.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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