Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 55.86%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 1-2 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
Result | ||
Atlanta United | Draw | CF Montreal |
55.86% ( 0.72) | 22.29% ( -0.33) | 21.85% ( -0.39) |
Both teams to score 56.85% ( 0.58) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.74% ( 1.02) | 42.26% ( -1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.33% ( 1.02) | 64.67% ( -1.01) |
Atlanta United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.01% ( 0.59) | 14.99% ( -0.59) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.55% ( 1.12) | 43.45% ( -1.12) |
CF Montreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.88% ( 0.22) | 33.12% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.28% ( 0.24) | 69.72% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Atlanta United | Draw | CF Montreal |
2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 8.94% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.83% Total : 55.86% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.29% | 1-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.33% Total : 21.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 35 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 29 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 25 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
7 | Toronto | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 20 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 19 |
11 | Orlando City | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 17 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
13 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 15 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 13 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 33 |
2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 30 |
3 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 29 |
4 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 28 |
5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 22 |
8 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 21 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 18 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 14 |
13 | Dallas | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 14 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |