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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Derby County |
30.88% ( -0.22) | 26.57% ( -0.01) | 42.56% ( 0.23) |
Both teams to score 51.09% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.39% ( -0.04) | 53.61% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.89% ( -0.04) | 75.11% ( 0.04) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.07% ( -0.18) | 31.93% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.62% ( -0.2) | 68.38% ( 0.21) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.06% ( 0.1) | 24.94% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.42% ( 0.14) | 59.58% ( -0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.09% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.74% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 30.88% | 1-1 @ 12.62% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.56% | 0-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 3.55% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.48% Total : 42.55% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |