Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.16%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
62.84% ( 0.53) | 21.05% ( -0.22) | 16.11% ( -0.32) |
Both teams to score 50.61% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.52% ( 0.36) | 45.48% ( -0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.18% ( 0.34) | 67.81% ( -0.34) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.14% ( 0.28) | 13.86% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.75% ( 0.55) | 41.24% ( -0.55) |
Espanyol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.75% ( -0.19) | 41.25% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.22% ( -0.17) | 77.78% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
1-0 @ 11.29% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.16% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.35% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.76% Total : 62.83% | 1-1 @ 10% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.04% | 0-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.78% Total : 16.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 95 |
2 | Barcelona | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 85 |
3 | GironaGirona | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 81 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 76 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 68 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 57 |
8 | Villarreal | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 53 |
9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 49 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
11 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 45 |
12 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 43 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 41 |
14 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 |
17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 38 |
R | CadizCadiz | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 33 |
R | Almeria | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 21 |
R | Granada | 38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 21 |
> La Liga Full Table |