Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 62.04%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 15.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.26%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
62.04% | 22.36% | 15.59% |
Both teams to score 45.5% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.25% | 51.74% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.48% | 73.51% |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.81% | 16.19% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.34% | 45.66% |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.29% | 45.71% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.5% | 81.49% |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
1-0 @ 13.47% 2-0 @ 12.26% 2-1 @ 9.6% 3-0 @ 7.45% 3-1 @ 5.83% 4-0 @ 3.39% 4-1 @ 2.65% 3-2 @ 2.28% 5-0 @ 1.24% 4-2 @ 1.04% 5-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.86% Total : 62.03% | 1-1 @ 10.54% 0-0 @ 7.4% 2-2 @ 3.76% Other @ 0.65% Total : 22.35% | 0-1 @ 5.79% 1-2 @ 4.13% 0-2 @ 2.27% 1-3 @ 1.08% 2-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.35% Total : 15.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 95 |
2 | Barcelona | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 85 |
3 | GironaGirona | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 81 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 76 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 68 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 57 |
8 | Villarreal | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 53 |
9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 49 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
11 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 45 |
12 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 43 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 41 |
14 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 |
17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 38 |
R | CadizCadiz | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 33 |
R | Almeria | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 21 |
R | Granada | 38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 21 |
> La Liga Full Table |