Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Atalanta4 - 1Fiorentina
FT(HT: 1-0)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Monza 1-2 Atalanta
Sunday, April 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Sunday, April 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina
Sunday, April 21 at 5pm in Serie A
Sunday, April 21 at 5pm in Serie A
We said: Atalanta BC 2-1 Fiorentina (2-2 on aggregate; Atalanta win on penalties)
After Fiorentina dominated the first leg, roles could be reversed this week, as Atalanta are a force to be reckoned with on home soil and the Viola do not travel all that well. Still, two well-matched teams may need a penalty shootout to separate them. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
Result | ||
Atalanta BC | Draw | Fiorentina |
41.23% ( 0.04) | 25.56% | 33.21% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 55.17% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.27% | 48.73% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.16% ( -0) | 70.84% ( 0) |
Atalanta BC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.55% ( 0.02) | 23.44% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.54% ( 0.03) | 57.45% ( -0.02) |
Fiorentina Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.07% ( -0.02) | 27.93% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.44% ( -0.03) | 63.56% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Atalanta BC 41.23%
Fiorentina 33.21%
Draw 25.56%
Atalanta BC | Draw | Fiorentina |
1-0 @ 9.5% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.04% Total : 41.23% | 1-1 @ 12.11% 0-0 @ 6.55% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.56% | 0-1 @ 8.35% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.29% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 33.21% |
How you voted: Atalanta vs Fiorentina
Atalanta BC
75.4%Draw
12.3%Fiorentina
12.3%114
Head to Head
Apr 3, 2024 8pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Fiorentina
1-0
Atalanta
Mar 18, 2024 12am
Gameweek 29
Atalanta
P-P
Fiorentina
Sep 17, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 4
Fiorentina
3-2
Atalanta
Apr 17, 2023 7.45pm
Oct 2, 2022 5pm
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-09 18:54:35
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 96 | 34 | 62 | 91 |
2 | Arsenal | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 91 | 29 | 62 | 89 |
3 | Liverpool | 38 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 86 | 41 | 45 | 82 |
4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 61 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 66 |
6 | Chelsea | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 77 | 63 | 14 | 63 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 85 | 62 | 23 | 60 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 60 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 52 |
10 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 49 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 48 |
12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 54 | 67 | -13 | 48 |
13 | Fulham | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 55 | 61 | -6 | 47 |
14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 46 |
15 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 32 |
R | Luton TownLuton | 38 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 52 | 85 | -33 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 38 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 38 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 104 | -69 | 16 |
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