Europa League | Group Stage
Nov 30, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Marseille4 - 3Ajax
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Strasbourg 1-1 Marseille
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajax 5-0 Vitesse
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie
We said: Marseille 2-1 Ajax
Considering a total of 21 goals have been scored in the last six meetings between these two teams, including three apiece in their most recent clash two months ago, another enthralling encounter with plenty of goalmouth action could on the cards on Thursday. Both sides have experienced inconsistent spells of form in recent weeks, but when taking into account Marseille's solid home form and Ajax's poor away record, we believe that the hosts will come out on top to secure their place in the Europa League knockout rounds, eliminating their Dutch counterparts in the process. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.57% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.92%) and 2-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Marseille | Draw | Ajax |
40.74% | 22.69% | 36.57% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 66.47% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.66% ( -0.01) | 34.34% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.76% ( -0.01) | 56.24% |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.46% ( -0) | 17.54% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.93% ( -0) | 48.07% ( -0) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.61% ( -0.01) | 19.39% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.81% ( -0.01) | 51.19% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Marseille 40.74%
Ajax 36.57%
Draw 22.69%
Marseille | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 8.45% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.92% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.15% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.9% 3-2 @ 4.02% 3-0 @ 2.99% 4-1 @ 2.13% 4-2 @ 1.75% 4-0 @ 1.3% 4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 3.16% Total : 40.74% | 1-1 @ 9.71% 2-2 @ 6.93% 0-0 @ 3.4% 3-3 @ 2.2% Other @ 0.44% Total : 22.69% | 1-2 @ 7.97% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.58% 0-2 @ 4.58% 1-3 @ 4.36% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.79% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.79% 2-4 @ 1.56% 0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0) 3-4 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 36.57% |
How you voted: Marseille vs Ajax
Marseille
60.7%Draw
21.3%Ajax
18.0%89
Head to Head
Sep 21, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Ajax
3-3
Marseille
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-12 12:15:09
Friday, June 14
8pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Scotland
Saturday, June 15
2pm
Group Stage
Hungary
vs.
Switzerland
5pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Croatia
8pm
Group Stage
Italy
vs.
Albania
Sunday, June 16
2pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Netherlands
5pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Denmark
8pm
Group Stage
Serbia
vs.
England
Monday, June 17
2pm
Group Stage
Romania
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Slovakia
8pm
Group Stage
Austria
vs.
France
Tuesday, June 18
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Georgia
8pm
Group Stage
Portugal
vs.
Czech Republic
Wednesday, June 19
2pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Albania
5pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Switzerland
Thursday, June 20
2pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Serbia
5pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
England
8pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
2pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
France
Saturday, June 22
2pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Czech Republic
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Portugal
8pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Romania
Sunday, June 23
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Switzerland
vs.
Germany
Monday, June 24
8pm
Group Stage
Albania
vs.
Spain
8pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Italy
Tuesday, June 25
5pm
Group Stage
France
vs.
Poland
5pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
Serbia
8pm
Group Stage
England
vs.
Slovenia
Wednesday, June 26
5pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Romania
5pm
Group Stage
Ukraine
vs.
Belgium
8pm
Group Stage
Czech Republic
vs.
Turkey
8pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Portugal
Saturday, June 29
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group A
vs.
2nd Group B
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group A
vs.
2nd Group C
Sunday, June 30
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group C
vs.
3rd Group D/E/F
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group B
vs.
3rd Group A/D/E/F
Monday, July 1
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group D
vs.
2nd Group E
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group F
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C
Tuesday, July 2
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group E
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C/D
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group D
vs.
2nd Group F
Friday, July 5
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Group A
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Germany | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Hungary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Group D
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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