Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 79.39%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 6.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.17%) and 1-0 (11.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.67%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (2.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
Result | ||
Lens | Draw | Ajaccio |
79.39% ( 0.01) | 14.19% ( -0.01) | 6.42% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 39.09% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.27% ( 0.01) | 41.73% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.87% ( 0.01) | 64.13% ( -0.01) |
Lens Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.54% ( 0.01) | 8.46% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.64% ( 0.01) | 29.36% ( -0.01) |
Ajaccio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
42.7% ( -0.01) | 57.3% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
10.79% ( -0.01) | 89.21% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Lens | Draw | Ajaccio |
2-0 @ 14.78% 3-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 11.97% 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0) 4-0 @ 7.51% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.78% 4-1 @ 4.19% ( 0) 5-0 @ 3.71% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.07% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.53% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.17% Other @ 3.39% Total : 79.38% | 1-1 @ 6.67% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.85% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.38% Total : 14.19% | 0-1 @ 2.7% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.86% ( -0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 6.42% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
R | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |