Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 61.79%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 17.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Celta Vigo |
61.79% ( 0.3) | 21.02% ( -0.18) | 17.19% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 53.03% ( 0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.57% ( 0.59) | 43.43% ( -0.59) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.17% ( 0.58) | 65.83% ( -0.58) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.48% ( 0.28) | 13.52% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.42% ( 0.56) | 40.58% ( -0.56) |
Celta Vigo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.32% ( 0.21) | 38.67% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.58% ( 0.2) | 75.41% ( -0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Celta Vigo |
1-0 @ 10.46% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 10.46% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.03% Total : 61.78% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 5.23% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.02% | 0-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.5% ( 0) Other @ 2.15% Total : 17.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 95 |
2 | Barcelona | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 85 |
3 | GironaGirona | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 81 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 76 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 68 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 57 |
8 | Villarreal | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 53 |
9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 49 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
11 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 45 |
12 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 43 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 41 |
14 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 |
17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 38 |
R | CadizCadiz | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 33 |
R | Almeria | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 21 |
R | Granada | 38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 21 |
> La Liga Full Table |