Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 14

Dec 2, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
3 - 1
Frosinone

Jovic (43'), Pulisic (50'), Tomori (74')
Jovic (80'), Pioli (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Brescianini (82')
Barrenechea (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Frosinone, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 1-3 Dortmund
Tuesday, November 28 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Frosinone

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Frosinone 2-1 Genoa
Sunday, November 26 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AC Milan 2-1 Frosinone

Hit by their latest raft of injuries, and amid some woeful form, Milan could be vulnerable to a shock loss on Saturday. However, Frosinone's fortunes nosedive away from the home comforts of Stadio Stirpe, so the Rossoneri should have enough depth to take maximum points against dangerous opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.6%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Frosinone had a probability of 17.81%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.77%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.61%), while for a Frosinone win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Frosinone
61.6% ( 0.01)	20.59% ( -0.01)	17.81% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 55.78% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.59% (

0.02)

40.41% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.21% (

0.03)

62.78% (

-0.03)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.37% (

0.01)

12.63% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.24% (

0.02)

38.76% (

-0.03)

Frosinone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.84% (

0.01)

36.15% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.06% (

0.01)

72.93% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 61.6%

Frosinone 17.81%

Draw 20.59%

AC Milan	Draw	Frosinone
2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.77% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.45% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.86% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.74% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.55% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.49% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.49% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( 0) Other @ 3.6% Total : 61.6%	1-1 @ 9.61% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.59%	1-2 @ 4.89% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.66% Other @ 2.54% Total : 17.81%